Innovating in the storm: How to build resilient businesses in times of uncertainty?

Dr. Lourdes Sánchez

Imagine a ship sailing through a hurricane. The sea is rough, visibility is limited, and the wind direction is constantly changing. The captain doesn’t know for sure what will happen in an hour, but he can’t stop: he must keep making decisions, protect his crew, manage available resources, and, above all, reach his destination.

That image accurately describes the reality of much of Cuban entrepreneurship today.

A context that no longer allows for five-year plans

For a long time, there was talk of long-term planning, relatively predictable markets, stable costs, and secure access to suppliers. However, the reality for Cuban entrepreneurs today is different: prices change from one day to the next, suppliers appear and disappear, customers modify their consumption habits, energy costs affect operations, and uncertainty has become part of the daily routine.

In this scenario, the question is no longer how to grow a business, but how to build a business capable of withstanding, adapting, and growing within constant uncertainty.

The Crisis Isn’t the Problem

A common mistake among entrepreneurs is attributing all difficulties to the current crisis. But the crisis isn’t a passing circumstance: it’s a structural part of the environment in which Cuban businesses operate. The real problem arises when business models are built for ideal conditions that rarely occur.

Living in a context of constant change forces us to develop resilience: the ability to absorb the impact without collapsing. And in this, Cuban entrepreneurs have, one might say, a PhD.

Two Businesses, One Storm

Let’s consider two coffee shops. Business A has a prime location across from a bank, a reliable coffee supplier, and sells more than one hundred cups a day. Business B doesn’t have that location or the same level of coffee sales, but it also offers soft drinks and pastries, has several suppliers—though not the best—and caters to different customer segments.

In a crisis scenario, which of the two would weather it better? Resilience doesn’t eliminate risk—after all, everyone is in the same boat—but it does reduce vulnerability. Diversifying suppliers, products, and customers is what allows a business to absorb a blow without going under.

It’s worth asking yourself these questions: If the main supplier disappeared tomorrow, would the business survive? For how long? What alternatives exist?

There’s no one-size-fits-all solution, only a diagnosis.

There’s no single formula for solving these challenges. Each business requires a personalized analysis that reviews, line by line, its finances, marketing strategy, communication, and supplier relationships.

Those who already have a diagnosis have a clearer path, but even those who don’t can contact CubaEmprende for guidance and to move forward in that process.

Specialize or diversify?

Faced with the dilemma of specializing or diversifying, the answer isn’t one or the other, but rather what the market demands at any given time. In such rapidly changing economies, every decision must be carefully evaluated: analyze feasibility, assess advisability, and determine whether investment, a partner, or a supply contract are needed. Market enthusiasm should not lead to hasty decisions.

One of the main risks businesses face is over-reliance on a single customer, a single supplier, or a very specific market niche.

The Hidden Costs No One Calculates

Many businesses are profitable in theory, but fail in practice because their costs haven’t been properly calculated. When operating intuitively, it’s common to be unaware of the true profit margin or whether a product is as profitable as it seems. What isn’t calculated can’t be managed.

Among the most frequent hidden costs are:

Spoilage and waste: damaged, burnt, or non-quality products.

The additional electricity consumption caused by power outages, which forces equipment like ovens, refrigerators, and mixers to work harder to compensate for the time without power.

• Packaging and labels: small expenses that, when added together, represent a considerable burden.
• Transportation and logistics, including the human effort involved in planning, fuel, and product damage during transit.
• Taxes and contributions.
• Imported supplies, subject to price and availability volatility.
• Promotion and marketing, whose return on investment is difficult to measure in the short term.
• Equipment obsolescence.

Collectively, these hidden costs typically represent between 10% and 15% of a company’s operating expenses.

Building Antifragile Businesses

The goal is not simply to withstand adversity, but to build businesses capable of working under pressure and thriving in the midst of it: antifragile businesses.

In complex times, customers choose places where they feel safe and where they feel valued. Therefore, building community—not just a customer base—becomes one of the most effective strategies. Strong companies don’t have customers: they have people who recommend them, who return, and who trust them.

Added to this is the importance of making data-driven decisions, even in simple ways: recording sales, expenses, most profitable products, and frequent customers, even in a notebook, makes a real difference.

Opportunities Emerging Amidst Chaos

While making predictions in this context is nearly impossible, new business areas have emerged strongly in recent years: services for senior citizens, logistics and courier services, specialized marketing, training and development, digital businesses, repair and maintenance—with a notable boom in recent months—and circular economy projects. None of these areas had their current prominence in 2021, when the approval of micro, small, and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs) and other private sector entities began.

This demonstrates that, even in the most challenging circumstances, unmet needs continue to arise.

The Real Enemy Is Stagnation

The goal is not to wait for the storm to pass, because in Cuba there will likely always be one. The goal is to build a business so flexible, so intelligent, and so connected to people’s needs that it can thrive even under adverse conditions.

Innovating in the midst of the storm means understanding that uncertainty is not the enemy: the real enemy is remaining stagnant while everything around us changes. Economic shifts generate uncertainty, but they also open up new opportunities. Every transformation is a gateway for those prepared to identify it and think strategically, rather than acting out of urgency.

Ultimately, innovating in the midst of a storm means developing the ability to see opportunities where others only see difficulties.